Pakistan’s nascent democracy is in trouble. The two-month-old coalition government is facing the first major threat to its survival amid fears that worse is still to come. The Nawaz Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League (N)’s decision to quit the Federal Cabinet following the surprise collapse of the negotiations with the coalition partner, the Pakistan People’s Party, on the reinstatement of the dismissed judges has created a situation of unpredictability. A week ago, PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari and Mr Sharif had announced a compromise solution to facilitate the restoration of the deposed judges. In return for the PPP’s willingness to resolve the issue without giving cause for a direct confrontation with President Pervez Musharraf, the PML(N) had agreed to the retention of the judges appointed in replacement of the dismissed judges. Consistent with the March 8 Murree Accord, a resolution was to have been moved in the National Assembly on May 12 along with a constitutional package stipulating the reinstatement terms.

The situation changed within a week since the three-day Zardari-Sharif talks in London ended in deadlock. The PML(N)’s issue-based support to the government will continue as Mr Sharif has decided, in the interests of democracy, to remain in the coalition and shun any action that will either “destabilise the government or strengthen dictatorships.” Describing the PML(N) pullout from the Cabinet as only a “pause in the process of restoration of judges” and not its end, Mr Zardari has said the disagreement was not on reinstatement as such but only on the modalities. He has clarified that one illegal action should not be set right by another illegal action but through proper legal procedure, hinting clearly that Mr Sharif is less particular about legalities but more interested in bringing the judges back immediately.

That the differences are more complex than Mr Zardari makes out is obvious; in Mr Sharif’s assessment the PPP leadership is wary of a confrontation with President Musharraf and prefers to let the issue lapse. For Mr Sharif, on the other hand, the issue is one of principle, and “related to the life of Pakistan ... and the most serious one in the last 50 years,” which is why he is risking even a breakup of the coalition. The nature of the differences raises questions over the very possibility of their ever being bridged. The current crisis can take any direction depending upon the PPP’s damage control measures to strengthen the government, including aligning with the PML(N)’s arch-rival, the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid). The only positive development is that Mr Sharif has filed nomination papers to contest the August byelection to Parliament.